Possible Causes for Worry in 2024 Regarding Jared Triolo
Although Jared Triolo, a rookie infielder for the Pirates, had an exceptionally high batting average on balls in play during the previous season, should we be alarmed about what he might accomplish in 2024?
Jared Triolo, one of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ most underappreciated top prospects heading into 2023, established himself in September of the previous year. Nonetheless, there were a few unsettling elements in Triolo’s season 2023 finale. But is it enough for fans to worry about Triolo’s performance in the upcoming year? Or am I making mountains out of molehills and using a microcosm of a tiny sample size?
Triolo batted.350/.458/.567 in September, registering a.440 wOBA and 178 wRC+. In spite of his 29.2% strikeout rate, the infielder had walked in 16.7% of his 72 plate appearances. Everything about this production is excellent, except for the strikeout rate. However, since he had a strikeout rate of almost 30%, you are more than welcome to locate me someone who wouldn’t take a.350 hitter with an OPS over 1.000. A noteworthy statistic, besides the strikeout percentage, was the batting average of.514 on balls in play.
When he was first promoted to the major leagues, he also had a very high BABIP. Triolo had a.404 BABIP through 137 plate appearances between June 28 and August 15. His BABIP skyrocketed in September in part due to his exit velocity increasing from less than 85 mph to 90.4 mph. In the meantime, his barrel rate increased by more than 10% from June to August, when it was below 3%, to 12.8% in September. More base hits usually come from more hard-hit baseballs. However, a rate higher than.500 is absurd. This cannot continue, as some have noted.
Does this mean that he is a non-starter now? First off, the sample size that we are discussing consists of just 209 plate appearances. You should exercise caution when interpreting a player’s BABIP based on fewer than 200 plate appearances, as the small sample size may not yield an accurate measurement.
Second, it should be noted that Triolo has a history of hitting for a high BABIP. Throughout his minor league career, Triolo has made 1476 plate appearances, which is more than enough to get a reasonable estimate of his BABIP. With a.346 BABIP, he hit.284/.370/.439 with a 122 wRC+ in those plate appearances. In 2021, he returned from COVID-19 with a minor league BABIP of almost.360.
This conversation is similar to what was said about Bryan Reynolds following his rookie campaign. After registering a.387 batting average on balls in play in 2019, many expressed concern that Reynolds would be a prime candidate for a significant regression. However, that entirely misses the fact that he saw over 1000 plate appearances during his minor league career, with a.378 BABIP.
A high or low BABIP is not always indicative of luck, according to FanGraphs, but a BABIP that deviates significantly from one’s career mark typically is. Triolo has a history of enjoying a high BABIP, so maybe it won’t come as a huge surprise if he continues to post high BABIP.500+ high, but still a very high one.
Thirdly, remember that ground balls and line drives are much more likely to result in non-home run hits than fly balls (home runs have a negative impact on BAbip). This past season, Triolo batted balls that were either grounders (40.3%) or liners (27.7%). Given that their line drive, fly ball, and ground ball rates were all within 1% of each other, Donovan Solano and Triolo were extremely similar. With balls in play, Solano’s batting average was.366. Nine out of 33 batters with 300+ plate appearances and at least a 27% line drive rate have had a BABIP below.330 since 2018.
Finally, Triolo might still be a good hitter even if he somewhat regresses. Yes, he produced an MVP-caliber wRC+ and batting average on balls in play, but his.514 batting average on balls in play is unsustainable and largely inflated due to the small sample size of just 72 plate appearances. However, I’ll take Triolo’s.270 hitter with a 110 wRC+ any day. With that kind of hitting and his defensive prowess, he could be a three- or even four-win player.
It makes perfect sense to be worried about Triolo’s baby.500+ plate appearances have never yielded a score as high as 440. The closest measurement, made by Hugh Duffy in 1894 while Grover Cleveland was still president, is.433. Rod Carew’s.408 BABIP in 500+ plate appearances during the post-World War II era is the highest. However, I don’t think fans need to freak out just yet. Triolo is usually a BAbip merchant, so even if/when he regresses, he might still be a useful hitter. However, the sample size is too tiny to begin with.
