Did the Rams’ playoff defeat against the Lions signal the end of their season due to Sean McVay being outcoached, exposing his most significant flaw?
Sean McVay, the head coach of the Los Angeles Rams, is widely regarded as one of the premier coaches in football, playing a significant role in his team’s success in 2023. His impressive resume highlights his strengths as an offensive innovator, leader, and culture builder, having led two quarterbacks to the Super Bowl, winning one. Despite his accomplishments, McVay faced criticism for being out-coached in a critical game that ultimately ended the Rams’ season.
In the compelling Super Wild Card Weekend matchup, the Rams suffered a narrow 24-23 loss to the Detroit Lions. The team performed well with no major special teams errors or turnovers. However, McVay’s decision-making in two crucial moments during the fourth quarter was scrutinized.
The first pivotal decision occurred when the Rams were down 24-20 in Detroit’s red zone with just over eight minutes remaining. After a 12-play, 79-yard drive, McVay faced a fourth-and-8 situation. Opting for a Brett Maher field goal, McVay’s decision was immediately validated by the successful kick. However, ESPN’s decision model suggested that going for the lead on fourth down would have given the Rams a higher chance of winning (35.5%) compared to the 32.7% chance from a field goal.
In the final offensive drive, trailing by one with just over four minutes left, the Rams confronted a fourth-and-14 from the Lions’ 44. McVay had to choose between a punt or a 61-yard field goal attempt by Maher. ESPN’s model projected a 34.4% chance of advancing to the Divisional Round with the field goal, slightly higher than the just over 30% chance from a punt.
While acknowledging that various outcomes could have unfolded, the critique centered on McVay’s conservative approach in these critical late-game decisions. Coaches are often evaluated based on their decision-making processes, and McVay’s cautious nature did not position the Rams optimally for success. Despite the loss, McVay remains an elite coach, but the defeat serves as a reminder that he is a work in progress, potentially requiring adjustments to his late-game strategies in the future.
