The Tar Heels boast a high-speed pace-and-post offense, led by the guard trio of Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis, and Cormac Ryan, who efficiently maneuver the floor and feed the ball to post player Armando Bacot. The crucial factor in countering the Heels is effective transition and post-up defense. Fortunately, Jon Scheyer possesses both skills. Although the Blue Devils aren’t outstanding in preventing efficient transition scoring (allowing 1.00 points per possession, ranking in the 57th percentile), they excel at restricting such opportunities. They allow the 30th-fewest transition possessions per game (9.1) and are in the 88th percentile for teams limiting fast-break points per game (7.3). Defensive guards Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain, and Tyrese Proctor are not only tough defenders but also possess the athleticism to keep up with North Carolina’s backcourt and the physicality to disrupt their gameplay.
Meanwhile, Kyle Fillipowski and Mark Mitchell display unexpected effectiveness as interior defenders, contributing to the Blue Devils securing a position in the top 20 nationally for post-up points per possession allowed (.68). Both players are anticipated to present challenges for Armando Bacot. Consequently, I anticipate the Blue Devils vigorously thwarting the Tar Heels’ pace-and-post offense.
On the offensive end, I am not particularly optimistic about the matchup for the Devils, especially when it comes to Filipowski on the roll. This method serves as Duke’s primary scoring approach, and North Carolina demonstrates proficiency in defending against ball-screen roll-men (allowing .96 points per possession, ranking in the 65th percentile). The UNC forwards, including Bacot, Jalen Washington, and Harrison Ingram, have proven themselves as adept defenders.
Furthermore, North Carolina stands among the nation’s top transition defenses, allowing only 9.9 possessions per game (ranking 61st nationally) and conceding .84 points per possession (ranking fifth nationally). As a result, both teams are unlikely to score easy points in fast breaks.
Efficient scoring is anticipated to be a challenge for both teams, whether in open-court or half-court situations. Generating second-chance points also seems challenging, given that both teams are among the best in defensive rebounding in the ACC. UNC holds the second position in the conference-only defensive rebounding rate, while Duke ranks fourth.
These factors contribute to an expectation of a low-scoring contest in this intense rivalry, similar to the last two matchups. The previous two games concluded with scores of 62-57 and 63-57, both falling below closing totals ranging between 143 and 145. The script is likely to repeat itself, with Duke aggressively thwarting North Carolina’s pace-and-post plays and the Heels defending against Filipowski in pick-and-roll situations, all while both teams excel in securing rebounds.
As a result, placing another bet on the Under for the Duke vs. North Carolina matchup seems like a reasonable choice.
