The Success of Michigan and Washington Ignores Recruiting Logic

The Michigan Wolverines vs. Washington Huskies College Football Playoff championship game on Monday night is somewhat of a crisis for the recruiting industry. Huskies and Wolverines have no business being here. This is not logical.

This reality is largely at odds with the accepted algorithms for forecasting the caliber of recruits and the number of recruits each team will have. The players on Michigan’s and Washington’s rosters were considered good but not exceptional. They serve as a warning that hiring is difficult to quantify and uncertain.

Furthermore, these two groups could be early indicators of a change in the process of producing champions. College football may soon adopt the get-old, stay-old strategy of roster building that has taken over college basketball.

Based on high school recruitment rankings, the 247 Sports “team talent composite” for 2023 places Michigan’s roster at No. 14 in the country. Washington comes in at number 26. Every national champion that has appeared since that team talent metric’s launch in 2015 at 247 Sports has been in the top 10, with the exception of one (2016 Clemson), which placed in the top six.

This season, Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State—schools that have consistently dominated recruiting rankings in recent years—rank first, second, and third in the 247 Sports algorithm. Together, they have also earned 15 postseason invitations and six of the nine College Football Playoff championships. However, Monday night they will all be spectators.