The message from Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay regarding quarterback Matthew Stafford’s contract situation has been consistent throughout OTA’s. In late May, McVay stated, “I respect the questions, I really do. Out of respect for just the totality of the situation and really, there’s just a lot of things that we want to be able to just keep in house.”
Last week, McVay reiterated this “in-house” stance, and he maintained this position during his final media session before the summer break. When asked about progress on Stafford’s contract, McVay responded, “If you had to guess, what would you say my answer’s going to be? Well, it’ll be the same as…keep things internally…I couldn’t be more impressed with the way that he’s handled it, the way that he’s led and been here every single day doing his thing. And that sure means a lot to me.”
McVay has consistently maintained this message about Stafford’s contract situation. He added that he anticipates Stafford will attend training camp as expected.
However, both sides are at a bit of a crossroads. After Stafford led the Rams to a Super Bowl title, the team extended his contract, making him one of six quarterbacks with an average annual value (AAV) of at least $40M. This figure has nearly doubled in the past two years. According to OverTheCap, Stafford is now one of 13 quarterbacks earning over $40M in AAV, tied with Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones at $40M.
Stafford has not been available to the media during OTAs, so it’s unclear what he seeks in a new deal. However, even if he were available, it’s unlikely he would provide more information than his head coach has.
As noted by TurfShowTimes, the issue isn’t Stafford’s earnings but the contract structure. While tied for 11th in AAV, Stafford is entering the more expensive years of his deal, with $49.5M due this season (the third highest among quarterbacks) and $50.5M next year (the fourth highest cap number among quarterbacks).
The main issue is the lack of guaranteed money after this season. According to NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport, Stafford is seeking more guaranteed money over the final two years. The Rams likely structured the contract this way to protect themselves, similar to their approach with Jared Goff. Goff’s deal had guarantees spread over several years, while Stafford’s contract concentrated 91 percent of guarantees in one season, backloading the deal to keep early cap numbers low. This gives the Rams an “out” after 2025, coinciding with Stafford’s age 37 season, comparable to Matt Ryan’s final NFL year.
Stafford is not guaranteed to follow Ryan’s path, but the Rams are cautious about changing the deal’s structure, as no guaranteed money provides flexibility. A new contract would mean a new commitment, which the Rams may be hesitant to make.
Despite the Rams’ concerns, Stafford has leverage. Gary Klein of the LA Times pointed out that the Rams are seen as potential Super Bowl contenders, contingent on Stafford playing. Although Stafford has shown no indication of holding out, he does have leverage if he chooses that route.
The Rams have prepared better backups for Stafford, such as signing Jimmy Garoppolo, but his two-game suspension complicates matters. If Stafford were to hold out, the Rams would rely on Stetson Bennett, which could hinder the offense. Last year, Brett Rypien’s performance in Week 9 resulted in poor offensive efficiency, indicating the offense’s struggle without Stafford.
It’s unlikely Stafford will hold out, given his history of playing through injuries. However, he deserves more guaranteed money for his well-being and his family’s security. Among quarterbacks earning more than $40M annually, Stafford’s $63M fully guaranteed is the lowest.
The Rams could follow a similar approach to Aaron Donald’s final contract, providing a raise and more guarantees without adding years. This adjustment would align Stafford with his market value and provide him with deserved security.
A new deal would mean another commitment to a quarterback who will be 37 and 38 in the final two years. The Rams need to decide if they are willing to make that commitment.
If Stafford doesn’t hold out, he will eventually face media questions, something he avoided during OTAs. This will change in training camp, where he will have to address the contract situation. Until resolved, this issue will remain a minor distraction and a point of contention. The Rams report back on July 23rd, and they hope to have a resolution by then.
