College football rankings: ESPN unveils Week 7 FPI Top 25 following a wave of upsets
The FPI is a measure of team strength, predicting future performance based on a model that simulates the rest of the season 20,000 times. It uses results to date and the remaining schedule to update rankings and projections daily.
Here’s a look at ESPN’s latest FPI rankings:
1. Texas Longhorns
The SEC’s last unbeaten team, Texas remains atop the FPI rankings after a bye week. They avoided the wave of upsets and are projected to win the SEC title (45%) and secure a playoff spot. Texas prepares for a major clash with Oklahoma next week.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State jumps to No. 2 after dominating Iowa for their second straight conference blowout. Their upcoming game against Oregon will be a key test.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama’s shocking loss to Vanderbilt has drastically reduced their playoff chances, and their FPI value dropped. If they hope to be one of the SEC’s playoff representatives, they need to improve significantly.
4. Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia continued their dominance with a win over Auburn. The Bulldogs are now in a strong playoff position, with a 74% chance to make it, especially after losses by other SEC rivals.
5. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss rose a spot after a blowout win over South Carolina. They still have a solid chance at making the playoffs, and a win against LSU next week could boost their chances even further.
6. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee’s loss to Arkansas marks their first major setback. Their chances of winning the SEC are now down to 15%, and they face tough games ahead.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame benefited from the chaos, now with a 48% playoff chance. They still have opportunities to impress, with big games ahead.
8. Oregon Ducks
Oregon’s upcoming game against Ohio State will be pivotal for both teams and could alter the rankings considerably.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State survived a tough game against UCLA and remains a playoff contender with strong defensive performances.
10. Miami Hurricanes
Miami staged an epic comeback against Cal to stay unbeaten in the ACC. They remain in the playoff hunt, projected at 17% to win out.
For the rest of the FPI top 25, notable teams like Clemson, Texas A&M, and SMU are among the biggest movers following a chaotic Week 6.
11. Clemson Tigers
Clemson has been on a strong rebound since their opening loss to Georgia, which now feels like a distant memory given their improved play. With a 36% chance of making the playoff according to ESPN’s FPI, Clemson is one of the few ACC teams still controlling their own playoff destiny—a situation coach Dabo Swinney is likely content with.
12. Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M is one of the biggest risers this week, moving back into the playoff conversation. Since losing to Notre Dame in the opener, the Aggies have been on a roll, with a dominating win over Missouri last weekend. ESPN’s FPI now gives them a 33% chance of making the playoff, though another loss is projected.
13. USC Trojans
After starting the season strong with a win over LSU, USC has since struggled, losing two Big Ten games, including a disappointing defeat to Minnesota. The Trojans’ playoff hopes are all but gone after their second loss, but they still remain in the FPI Top 15.
14. Indiana Hoosiers
If you’re not convinced about Indiana yet, it might be time to take notice. Under new coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana has scored over 40 points for the fifth consecutive game and has climbed the FPI rankings after beating Northwestern. With a 51% playoff chance, they have key matchups against Michigan and Ohio State in November.
15. LSU Tigers
16. Louisville Cardinals
17. Oklahoma Sooners
18. SMU Mustangs
19. Iowa State Cyclones
SMU saw the biggest jump in the FPI this week after a major win over Louisville. The Mustangs now hold a 31% chance of reaching the playoff and benefit from a favorable schedule moving forward.
20. Boise State Broncos
21. Kansas State Wildcats
22. Missouri Tigers
23. Tulane Green Wave
24. Arkansas Razorbacks
25. Kentucky Wildcats
Boise State, a Group of Five frontrunner, dominated Utah State, with Ashton Jeanty delivering a standout performance. ESPN’s FPI gives them a 44% playoff chance, though their upcoming showdown with UNLV has lost some excitement after UNLV’s recent loss to Syracuse.